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A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."